Seven Predictions for the RFID Industry in 2007

By Bill Arnold

Here are seven bold and not-so-bold predictions for the RFID industry in 2007:

• Wal-Mart will continue their planned RFID initiative and more pharmaceutical products will be involved.
• Infrastructure solutions (software and network tools) will be the main topics of reports in the press and improved results from these tools will drive more adoption.
• The press will continue to write about how "The Big Breakout" is yet to appear, while the market will continue to grow at more than 30% per year.
• The pharmaceutical industry will begin to deploy significant numbers of RFID evaluation projects and a few large scale implementations will start.
• RFID projects that deliver measurable ROI will be illustrated for both supply chain and closed systems as more companies find ways to use RFID effectively.
• There will continue to be indecision in the pharmaceutical industry about whether HF or UHF is the better choice. How to define and ensure that the desired benefits are achieved is really a much more important consideration.
• RFID will be tested in a variety of applications to improve health care delivery and improve patient safety.

Additionally, I continue to see a lot of expectations for RFID deployments that start with the assumption that putting RFID tags on the target application will bring about immediate improvements in productivity, asset visibility, ROI, or some other desired outcome. This assumption nearly always leads to frustration, disillusionment, and statements like "RFID just isn't ready yet." The reality is that RFID deployment addresses or impacts enterprise level issues from many different operational areas, so determining where to use RFID, what to do with the data collected, when or where to start, and how to define just the measurements can be a very daunting task. Any problems encountered during the project start up tend to cause more emotional response due to the many unknowns that are faced by project participants.

Attainment of desirable business improvement goals are possible (from RFID deployment), but the only way to achieve positive results is with both an understanding of what RFID as a technology both can and cannot do, along with a well thought-out measurement and evaluation plan. It is also very important to note that productivity or efficiency tends to decline initially with any new technology or process deployment. Only after the departments affected have adapted to the new methods will improvements occur and new processes become the new norm.

Bill Arnold is the Chief Strategist at Omron RFID (www.omronrfid.com). Contact him at bill.arnold@omron.com.